{"id":2541753,"date":"2025-04-24T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-24T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/?p=2541753"},"modified":"2025-12-23T20:11:15","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T20:11:15","slug":"disbelief-in-poker","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/disbelief-in-poker\/","title":{"rendered":"Disbelief in Poker is a Value Target"},"content":{"rendered":"\"tournament<\/a>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n\t\t\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tTable Of Contents\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
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  1. A simplified game tree<\/a>
  2. Always have a value target in mind<\/a>
  3. Disbelief is a value target<\/a>
  4. Give your opponent a difficult decision<\/a><\/ol>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\n
    \t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\tTLDR:<\/strong>\u00a0See AI summary of this article.<\/span><\/div>

    In poker, recognizing and exploiting your opponent’s disbelief can be a powerful strategy to extract additional value, especially on the river.

    Key Takeaways:<\/strong>
    * Simplified Scenario:<\/strong> Consider a heads-up situation on the river where you hold a strong hand, and your opponent checks to you.
    * Identifying Value Targets:<\/strong> While it’s common to target second-best hands for value, don’t overlook the potential of your opponent’s bluff-catchers.
    * Exploiting Disbelief:<\/strong> If your opponent suspects you’re bluffing, they may call with weaker hands they would typically fold. This skepticism becomes an opportunity to value bet more effectively.
    * Strategic Betting:<\/strong> By understanding your opponent’s tendencies and the dynamics of disbelief, you can adjust your bet sizing to maximize returns from hands that might otherwise fold.

    By incorporating this approach into your play, you can enhance your ability to extract value in situations where opponents doubt the strength of your hand.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n

    A simplified game tree<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Multi-street poker is a complex game, and with four streets of betting, and a huge number of possible bet sizes available, no-limit Texas Hold\u2019em<\/a> can get absurdly complicated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    But I\u2019m going to make our lives easier for this discussion. Like a bicycle courier, we\u2019re going to zip past the first three streets and arrive at the river (ironically, aka \u201cFifth Street\u201d). And I\u2019m not even done simplifying. I\u2019m going to make the pot heads-up, and we have the button. In short, we\u2019re paring the game tree down dramatically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    It gets better \u2013 our opponent checks to us, and we are pretty sure we have the best hand. We definitely want to bet, but how much?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Think about your opponent\u2019s range of hands, and the hand \u201cbuckets\u201d that comprise the largest part of their range. For instance, suppose the final board is J-7-3-2-3 with no flush possible. You raised with QJs in late position, and the big blind called. They checked and called your bets on the flop and the turn, and now, as promised, here we are on the river, and they\u2019ve checked a third time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Always have a value target in mind<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    I think we have the best hand almost always, and am watching to see how much you\u2019re going to bet. But I see you\u2019re wavering\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u201cLee, I don\u2019t know what worse is going to call if I bet. Is JT or J9 or 88 really going to call?\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    First, congratulations. You\u2019ve made the key first step, which is to identify your value targets. You always want to ask: \u201cHow much will their best calling hands call?\u201d Let\u2019s take getting check\/raised off the table, since if that happens, it\u2019s \u201cnever\u201d a bluff, and we can giggle and throw our QJ in the muck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Have<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Also, I like your thinking about the poker range<\/a> you\u2019re targeting. Weaker jacks and pocket pairs less than a jack look like delicious value targets. I think you can get some value from those.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    However, there\u2019s one thing you know, that they don\u2019t know, which makes an important addition to your target field:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    You<\/em><\/strong> know that you\u2019re value betting \u2013 <\/strong>they<\/em><\/strong> don\u2019t know that.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Disbelief is a value target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    What is the no-limit hold\u2019em hand that everybody puts everybody else on when they raise preflop?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    That\u2019s right \u2013 ace-king.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Here at the river, the infamous Big Slick is nothing more than the nut no-pair. Which means that JT, 99, 87, and every other one-pair<\/em> hand<\/em> beat it. Poker players, particularly recreational players, like to call river bets. Seeing that big flashing \u201cAK\u201d over your head is a siren call for them to put chips in the pot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    So when you asked me, \u201cWill 87 call a bet?\u201d, my answer is, \u201cIf they think you have AK, they will definitely call. If they really<\/em> think you have AK, they\u2019ll call with 55.\u201d Don\u2019t snicker at me \u2013 I\u2019ve lost track of the number of times I\u2019ve seen that scenario play out. Have you not heard the sixth street comment<\/a>, \u201cI put you on ace-king\u201d?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Give your opponent a difficult decision<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    The game theory optimal strategy<\/a> players like to say that a good bet size on the river leaves your opponent \u201cindifferent.\u201d That is, your opponent believes that calling and folding have nearly equal expected value. I think that the word \u201cindifferent\u201d is too gentle. \u201cMiserable\u201d and \u201cstuck between a rock and a hard place\u201d come to mind. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Remember that, while you<\/em> know you have the best hand, your opponent doesn\u2019t<\/em> know that. That opens up a big bucket full of bluff-catchers that probably doesn\u2019t figure prominently in your thinking \u2013 after all, you\u2019re not<\/em> bluffing, and know it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    While your opponent\u2019s second-best hands are certainly the primary target for your bet, if you\u2019re worried you\u2019re running out of value targets, always remember that your credibility is on trial here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Disbelief is a value target.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    A simplified game tree Multi-street poker is a complex game, and with four streets of betting, and a huge number of possible bet sizes available, no-limit Texas Hold\u2019em can get absurdly complicated. But I\u2019m going […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":205,"featured_media":2541756,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[877,16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2541753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-poker-basics","category-poker-strategy"],"acf":{"peak_live_date":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":["https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Disbelief-is-a-Value-Target.jpg",1280,720,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Disbelief-is-a-Value-Target-373x210.jpg",373,210,true],"medium":["https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Disbelief-is-a-Value-Target-746x420.jpg",746,420,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Disbelief-is-a-Value-Target-768x432.jpg",768,432,true],"large":["https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Disbelief-is-a-Value-Target-1024x576.jpg",1024,576,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Disbelief-is-a-Value-Target.jpg",1280,720,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Disbelief-is-a-Value-Target.jpg",1280,720,false],"author_image":["https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Disbelief-is-a-Value-Target-100x100.jpg",100,100,true]},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"Lee Jones","author_link":"https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/author\/jonesleehgmail-com\/"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"A simplified game tree Multi-street poker is a complex game, and with four streets of betting, and a huge number of possible bet sizes available, no-limit Texas Hold\u2019em can get absurdly complicated. But I\u2019m going […]","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2541753","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/205"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2541753"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2541753\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2542609,"href":"https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2541753\/revisions\/2542609"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2541756"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2541753"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2541753"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pokercoaching.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2541753"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}