The A8o in the SB where you shove 15bb and then check your charts and say that's correct, it isn't, your chart says raise 2.5x. Are you using different charts to the published ones?
mpdunson
Also, are you really going to be able to play 400 $100 buy-in sit and go ultra in 6 hours each day? There has to be enough people on the site looking for that action for you to have that chance.
mpdunson
I did a calculation and if you had a 34% win rate there is a 17% chance you would win 3444 tournament out of 10000. Making you think you have a 34.44% win rate. So you would be expecting the winnings of a 34.44% win rate, but in actuality you were just luck your winnings would be of a 34.00% win rate which is much lower.
I used a binomial probability calculator to calculate this. This is my link to wolfram alpha: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=binomial+probability+calculator&assumption=%7B%22F%22%2C+%22BinomialProbabilities%22%2C+%22x%22%7D+-%3E%223444%22&assumption=%7B%22F%22%2C+%22BinomialProbabilities%22%2C+%22n%22%7D+-%3E%2210000%22&assumption=%7B%22F%22%2C+%22BinomialProbabilities%22%2C+%22p%22%7D+-%3E%22.34%22.
mpdunson
Thoughts: With as slight as an edge as your model has, 34.4444%, the million dollar spin has an incredible effect on your pay. If you play 400 games a day for 2500 days at $100 buyin you make $560/day * 2500 days = $1,400,000, but that's assuming you make 34.444% of the 1,200,000 jackpot = $413,000. But you're not going to make $413,000 you're either going to make 1st which would be $587,000 more or not-first which is $313,000 less (2nd and 3rd still give you $100k). So you can reasonably rely on $1,087,000 which is more like $435/day or $987,000 until you get that jackpot spin, which is more like $394/day. Which I'm not saying $400/day is bad, but you are 6-tabling $100 tables for 6 hours (which assumes an average game length of 5.5 mins). Plus, a couple hours to work on your game. I feel like that is a pretty stressful way to make $50/hour. I know you said something about leaderboards so it would be nice to see how much that adds to the winnings.
Also, how big of a sample would you need before you could be certain that you were making at least +10 chips/ tournament on average? What if you were playing a weaker pool of players. How many game would it take before you know that your sample reflects the average pool of players?
molloyclaire
Your classes and course have taken my game to another level, so a massive and sincere thank you for that. Any chance of an Ultra's course please?
connor.dougherty97
Anyone know what the rake is for sit n go jackpots on ACR? I just started playing, and over about 600 games I win 38% of them but don't know how to model potential earnings per hour without this information. Any info would be super appreciated.
Michele Brunello Zanitti
thank you for the great content Ryan!
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