This poker hand is a good example of how solver strategy can look passive on the flop, aggressive on a blank turn, and then flexible on the river.

Hero opens J♠T♠ from the lowjack at 50bb and faces a button call, then navigates a runout where the solver’s decisions are driven by frequency discipline and range structure more than hand strength.

Assumptions

• Stacks: 50bb effective
• Positions: LJ (Hero) vs BTN (Villain)
• Action: LJ raises to 2.2bb, BTN calls
• Flop: 8♠7♥3♠ (Pot 6.9bb)
• Turn: 2♦ (Pot 6.9bb)
• River: Q♥ (Pot 27.7bb)

Flop: 8♠7♥3♠

This is a low, connected texture that interacts well with the button’s calling range. PeakGTO output has LJ checking 81.9% of the time, betting only 18.1%, which reflects that LJ doesn’t have enough natural board coverage to bet at high frequency here.

With J♠T♠, checking is the preferred option about 60% of the time. While the hand has overcards, a flush draw, and a gutshot straight draw, it prefers checking in order to balance the rest of the range that does not have much equity at all on this board. BTN checks back at a meaningful rate (40.2%), keeping both ranges wide going to the turn.

Turn: 2♦

The 2♦ is a brick that doesn’t complete or introduce major value shifts. Solver still checks frequently from LJ (70.8%), but it also introduces a spread of turn bet sizes, with the 10.4bb sizing used 16.5% of the time.

In this hand, Hero takes that 10.4bb line. Since BTN checked back flop, GTO strategy turn bets lean toward a polarized pressure strategy, targeting folds from hands that connected weakly to the flop and didn’t improve on the brick turn. BTN’s response is to fold 54.6% and call 45.0%, with raises essentially absent, showing this sizing is designed to win the pot outright at a high rate when BTN’s range is capped.

River: Q♥

Solver shows LJ mixing between betting and checking on this river: check 38.9%, bet 16.6bb 27.6%, and bet 37.4bb 32.4%. BTN then checks back 54.2%, while betting 13.8bb 17.3% or 37.4bb 28.5% when it does bet.

With J♠T♠ specifically, checking is coherent with the solver’s overall mix. The hand has no pair and no strong blocker-driven justification for bluffing, so it falls into the portion of the range that takes the solver’s check line and effectively concedes the pot, but protects your tournament life.

Key Takeaways

• Flop: LJ checks very frequently (81.9%) on this low connected texture. Hands like J♠T♠ fit into the high-check strategy to balance the rest of the range.
• Turn: The 2♦ is a brick, and solver applies selective pressure with larger sizes like 10.4bb (16.5%). This targets the in-position player’s flop-check-back range that contains many hands willing to fold.
• River: Solver mixes between checking and two primary bet sizes (16.6bb and 37.4bb). The check line remains substantial, and BTN checks back more than half the time (54.2%).
• Overall: The solver’s plan here is structured and frequency-driven: check heavily on flop, pressure selectively on a brick turn, and arrive on the river with a balanced mix of checks and polarized bets.