A simplified game tree
Multi-street poker is a complex game, and with four streets of betting, and a huge number of possible bet sizes available, no-limit Texas Hold’em can get absurdly complicated.
But I’m going to make our lives easier for this discussion. Like a bicycle courier, we’re going to zip past the first three streets and arrive at the river (ironically, aka “Fifth Street”). And I’m not even done simplifying. I’m going to make the pot heads-up, and we have the button. In short, we’re paring the game tree down dramatically.
It gets better – our opponent checks to us, and we are pretty sure we have the best hand. We definitely want to bet, but how much?
Think about your opponent’s range of hands, and the hand “buckets” that comprise the largest part of their range. For instance, suppose the final board is J-7-3-2-3 with no flush possible. You raised with QJs in late position, and the big blind called. They checked and called your bets on the flop and the turn, and now, as promised, here we are on the river, and they’ve checked a third time.
Always have a value target in mind
I think we have the best hand almost always, and am watching to see how much you’re going to bet. But I see you’re wavering…
“Lee, I don’t know what worse is going to call if I bet. Is JT or J9 or 88 really going to call?”
First, congratulations. You’ve made the key first step, which is to identify your value targets. You always want to ask: “How much will their best calling hands call?” Let’s take getting check/raised off the table, since if that happens, it’s “never” a bluff, and we can giggle and throw our QJ in the muck.
Also, I like your thinking about the poker range you’re targeting. Weaker jacks and pocket pairs less than a jack look like delicious value targets. I think you can get some value from those.
However, there’s one thing you know, that they don’t know, which makes an important addition to your target field:
You know that you’re value betting – they don’t know that.
Disbelief is a value target
What is the no-limit hold’em hand that everybody puts everybody else on when they raise preflop?
That’s right – ace-king.
Here at the river, the infamous Big Slick is nothing more than the nut no-pair. Which means that JT, 99, 87, and every other one-pair hand beat it. Poker players, particularly recreational players, like to call river bets. Seeing that big flashing “AK” over your head is a siren call for them to put chips in the pot.
So when you asked me, “Will 87 call a bet?”, my answer is, “If they think you have AK, they will definitely call. If they really think you have AK, they’ll call with 55.” Don’t snicker at me – I’ve lost track of the number of times I’ve seen that scenario play out. Have you not heard the sixth street comment, “I put you on ace-king”?
Give your opponent a difficult decision
The game theory optimal strategy players like to say that a good bet size on the river leaves your opponent “indifferent.” That is, your opponent believes that calling and folding have nearly equal expected value. I think that the word “indifferent” is too gentle. “Miserable” and “stuck between a rock and a hard place” come to mind.
Remember that, while you know you have the best hand, your opponent doesn’t know that. That opens up a big bucket full of bluff-catchers that probably doesn’t figure prominently in your thinking – after all, you’re not bluffing, and know it.
While your opponent’s second-best hands are certainly the primary target for your bet, if you’re worried you’re running out of value targets, always remember that your credibility is on trial here.
Disbelief is a value target.
