Some players focus too much on making big hands when playing poker, neglecting the fact they should be winning pots even without such premium holdings.
However, regardless of your playing style and your skill level, you should also be aware of the odds of making big poker hands with your hole cards, as that is the only way to properly decide when to continue with your hand and when to fold.
If you are not sure about the odds of flopping different poker hands, you have come to the right place, as this page is designed to teach you the odds of making each poker hand and a few other handy tricks.
Odds of Being Dealt a Starting Hand
The first thing that many poker players overestimate is the odds of getting dealt specific hands, whether it’s a premium hand like AA or KK, a premium pair in general, suited connectors, or anything else.
While this information may seem less useful than those we will cover in the rest of this article, it can actually be quite handy for a number of reasons.
Most importantly, understanding the odds of being dealt certain starting hands within your poker range will help you practice patience and discipline at the table, as you’ll develop a clearer sense of what’s standard and what’s out of the ordinary.
Note that these odds are only the averages, and you may still get more or fewer hands of a certain type in any given session you play.
So, here is a look at some of the most popular starting hands in poker and the odds of getting dealt such hands:
| Starting Hand | Probability | Odds |
| AK Suited | 0.3% | 331:1 |
| AA | 0.45% | 220:1 |
| KK | 0.45% | 220:1 |
| Any Particular Pair | 0.45% | 220:1 |
| AK | 1.21% | 82:1 |
| Big Pair (JJ – AA) | 1.81% | 54:1 |
| Suited Connectors | 3.92% | 24.5:1 |
| Connected High Cards | 4.83% | 19.7:1 |
| Any Pocket Pair | 5.88% | 16:1 |
| Connected Cards | 11.57% | 5.4:1 |
| Unconnected Cards with a Card Under 9 | 53.4% | 0.87:1 |
As you can see in the table above, the odds of getting dealt a big poker hand such as AA, KK, AK, or even just a pocket pair of any kind are quite low.
On the other hand, 53.4% of all poker hands you will get dealt will be disjointed, unsuited, and will contain at least one card 9 or lower, making them complete trash.
So, the next time you play and get a few trashy hands in a row, don’t go on tilt and start playing these hands, but rather keep your composure and stay calm, as the big hands will also come at an appropriate frequency.
It is also very important to remember that just because there is a 3% chance of getting a hand, it does not mean you will get it exactly once every 33 hands, but rather you could get it 5 times in 50 hands and then not see it again for a while.
Keep in mind that poker is all about the long run and getting the best results over time and don’t focus too much on what kinds of cards you are getting dealt in any particular session.
Odds of Flopping Different Poker Hands
Now that we have covered the basic odds of getting dealt certain types of starting hands in poker, it’s time to look at the odds of making different hands on the flop.
If you are relatively new to the game or have never looked at these numbers, some of them might just surprise you either positively or negatively.
The next time you play poker, make sure to think back of the odds we will present below so you can maintain your poker face when your hands turn into something big or remain unimproved after the flop is dealt.
Before we go over different hands, here is a look at a table with the odds of flopping different poker hands displayed in one place:
| Starting Cards | Poker Hand | Odds of Making | Probability |
| Unpaired Cards | One Pair | 2.45:1 | 29% |
| Unpaired Cards | Two Pair | 50:1 | 2% |
| Unpaired Cards | Three of a Kind (trips) | 74:1 | 1.35% |
| Pocket Pair | Three of a Kind (set) | 7.5:1 | 11.8% |
| Connected Cards | Straight | 75:1 | 1.3% |
| One Gappers | Straight | 101:1 | 0.98% |
| Two Gappers | Straight | 152:1 | 0.65% |
| Three Gappers | Straight | 302:1 | 0.33% |
| Suited Cards | Flush | 101:1 | 0.98% |
| Unpaired Cards | Full House | 1110:1 | 0.09% |
| Pocket Pair | Full House | 101:1 | 0.98% |
| Suited Connectors | Straight Flush | 4999:1 | 0.02% |
| Suited One Gappers | Straight Flush | 6665:1 | 0.015% |
| Suited Two Gappers | Straight Flush | 9999:1 | 0.01% |
| Suited Three Gappers | Stratight Flush | 19999:1 | 0.005% |
| Suited Broadways | Royal Flush | 19999:1 | 0.005% |
Odds of Flopping a Pair
The table above showed us how hard it is to get a pair to start with, so the vast majority of starting hands in poker are unpaired.
When you start a hand with unpaired cards, the odds of making one pair on the flop are 29% or 2.45 to 1 overall.
Whether you are holding a hand like AK or 87, you will only hit one of the two cards you are holding on the flop about 30% of the time, which means being in the right poker position and being able to win some pots without hitting a pair will be essential with these types of hands.
Odds of Flopping Two Pair
Every player’s dream is that when the flop comes both of their hole cards will show up, giving them two pair and a chance to win a big one.
The odds of that are quite slim, though, as only 2% of all flops will give you two pairs when you start a hand with two unpaired cards.
50 to 1 does not sound too good when taking a bet, so the next time you play a hand hoping to hit two pairs, you may want to reconsider and toss your cards into the muck instead.
Odds of Flopping Three of a Kind
There are two you can make it. One is by holding a pair in your hand and hitting a single card on the board (a set), and the other is by holding unpaired cards and hitting two cards on the board (trips).
Naturally, the odds of these two outcomes are quite different and it is much easier to flop a set than it is to flop trips.
If you start a hand with a pocket pair, you have about an 11.8% chance of flopping a set, which translates to about 7.5 to 1. These are quite reasonable odds, and given the right pot odds, chasing a set can be quite profitable.
The odds of flopping trips with an unpaired hand are quite a bit lower at 1.35%, which translates to about 74:1, a long shot, to say the least.
While you will see people make trips on the flop every now and then, keep in mind that this is not a likely scenario and not one you should bank on.
Odds of Flopping a Straight
When it comes to making a straight on the flop, it is important to remember that different hands have different straight potential in Texas Hold’em poker.
For instance, a hand like 87 is much more likely to flop a straight than a hand like 84, as the former has four different ways it can make a straight while the latter only has one.
With that in mind, here is a look at the odds of making a straight on the flop with different starting hands:
- Four ways to make a straight: 1.3%
- Three ways to make a straight: 0.98%
- Two ways to make a straight: 0.65%
- One way to make a straight: 0.33%
As you can see, the odds of flopping a straight are quite low in either case, so don’t bank on this possibility too much, and make sure you have more going for you than just an opportunity to make a straight before you go into a hand.
Odds of Flopping a Flush
About 23.5% of all starting card combinations in poker are suited, and seeing two suited cards gives players an illusion that they have a good chance to make a flush.
The reality, however, is quite different, as the odds of flopping a flush with two suited cards is about 0.8%, meaning you will need to see about 118 flops with suited hands before you flop a flush.
Of course, you can also count on the turn and river card to help you make a flush, but the odds are still not in your favor by any means.
This is exactly the reason you will not see professional poker players play trashy low cards just because they are suited, as suitedness alone is not a big factor in hand strength in Texas Hold’em.
Odds of Flopping a Full House
Flopping a full house in Texas Hold’em poker means you will win the pot the vast majority of the time, but it is also a very hard thing to do.
If you start a hand with a pocket pair, you will flop a full house about 0.98% of the time, so you can count this as about one time out of a hundred.
On the other hand, if your starting cards are not paired, you will only flop a full house about 0.09%, about one in a thousand times.
If neither of those odds seems too appealing, it’s because they are not, but chasing full houses isn’t going to be your primary objective in the game of poker anyway.
Odds of Flopping a Straight/Royal Flush
The holy grail of all poker hands is the royal flush, but any straight flush will be the winner in almost every scenario.
However, making a hand like this is extremely unlikely, and many players play the game for years before making one.
What’s even more, actually flopping a straight flush is extremely difficult, as you always need very specific cards on the board to make it happen.
The odds of flopping a straight flush range between 0.005% with three gappers to 0.02% with suited connectors, while the odds of making a royal flush with any two suited Broadway cards are exactly 0.005%.
These odds go up a little bit if you consider the turn and river cards as well, but it is still very unlikely to make a straight flush with two suited cards at any time.
Don’t Bank on Flopping Big Hands
After going through all the odds, you may be thinking that the math is off and that it can’t possibly be that hard to flop big hands in Texas Hold’em.
And yet, the math is 100% correct, and the game of poker is one in which making big hands on the flop is extremely unlikely.
So, the next time you play poker, instead of banking on flopping big and winning huge pots in cooler situations, learn how to use position, aggression, and other elements of a strong poker strategy to your advantage.
At the end of the day, Texas Hold’em is not about who has the best cards but rather who plays their cards better and knows when to hold’em and when to fold’em.
